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Charlie's TipsThe analysis behind the prediction
Get NRL predictions before kickoff
PUNTERS LAB · PUBLIC HISTORICAL RESEARCH

7 locked cards.
Five transparent lenses.

See how flat one-unit H2H selections, confidence-group multis and against-market calls would have performed across every audited round with a retained pre-kickoff market snapshot. Upcoming tips never appear here.

Read the sample before the return.

These are hypothetical historical calculations from 56 matches and 7 rounds. The source is shown round by round because Round 21 uses an archived benchmark, Round 22 uses Stats Insider, and Rounds 23–27 use documented Sportsbet captures. This is not evidence of a repeatable edge, a recommendation to bet, or a guarantee of future returns.

01 / STRATEGY SCOREBOARD

All 7 rounds.
One scoreboard.

Every eligible stake from Rounds 21–27 is included. Multis are formed independently within each round, then their stakes and returns are combined here.

StrategySelectionsStakeReturnNetROI
All official H2H tips42/56 correct5656.00u64.21u+8.21u+14.7%
Low-confidence multi2/4 winning multis · 12 total legs124.00u12.25u+8.25u+206.2%
Medium-confidence multi2/7 winning multis · 26 total legs267.00u16.91u+9.91u+141.5%
High-confidence multi3/5 winning multis · 17 total legs175.00u8.19u+3.19u+63.8%
Against-market H2H tips7/7 correct77.00u15.56u+8.56u+122.3%

A standard multi price is the product of its captured leg prices. One unit is used per H2H selection and per valid confidence multi; fewer than two legs in a band means no multi and no stake for that round.

02 / ROUND-BY-ROUND AUDIT

Every strategy.
Every round.

This is the calculation trail behind the combined scoreboard, including losses and confidence groups that could not form a two-leg multi.

RoundStrategySelectionsStakeReturnNetROI
R21All official H2H tips6/8 correct88.00u9.75u+1.75u+21.9%
R21Low-confidence multi4 legs · $7.15 · Lost41.00u0.00u-1.00u-100.0%
R21Medium-confidence multi4 legs · $6.28 · Lost41.00u0.00u-1.00u-100.0%
R21High-confidence multi0 legs · Not formed00.00u0.00u+0.00uNot formed
R21Against-market H2H tips2/2 correct22.00u4.10u+2.10u+105.0%
R22All official H2H tips8/8 correct88.00u12.45u+4.45u+55.6%
R22Low-confidence multi2 legs · $2.03 · Won21.00u2.03u+1.03u+102.9%
R22Medium-confidence multi6 legs · $13.21 · Won61.00u13.21u+12.21u+1220.6%
R22High-confidence multi0 legs · Not formed00.00u0.00u+0.00uNot formed
R22Against-market H2H tips1/1 correct11.00u2.70u+1.70u+170.0%
R23All official H2H tips6/8 correct88.00u9.85u+1.85u+23.1%
R23Low-confidence multi3 legs · $5.15 · Lost31.00u0.00u-1.00u-100.0%
R23Medium-confidence multi3 legs · $3.70 · Won31.00u3.70u+2.70u+269.9%
R23High-confidence multi2 legs · $1.69 · Lost21.00u0.00u-1.00u-100.0%
R23Against-market H2H tips2/2 correct22.00u4.13u+2.13u+106.5%
R24All official H2H tips6/8 correct88.00u10.53u+2.53u+31.6%
R24Low-confidence multi3 legs · $10.22 · Won31.00u10.22u+9.22u+921.9%
R24Medium-confidence multi2 legs · $1.97 · Lost21.00u0.00u-1.00u-100.0%
R24High-confidence multi3 legs · $2.34 · Won31.00u2.34u+1.34u+133.9%
R24Against-market H2H tips2/2 correct22.00u4.63u+2.63u+131.5%
R25All official H2H tips5/8 correct88.00u7.22u-0.78u-9.8%
R25Low-confidence multi0 legs · Not formed00.00u0.00u+0.00uNot formed
R25Medium-confidence multi4 legs · $5.02 · Lost41.00u0.00u-1.00u-100.0%
R25High-confidence multi4 legs · $2.44 · Lost41.00u0.00u-1.00u-100.0%
R25Against-market H2H tips0/0 correct00.00u0.00u+0.00uNot formed
R26All official H2H tips6/8 correct88.00u8.29u+0.29u+3.6%
R26Low-confidence multi1 leg · Not formed10.00u0.00u+0.00uNot formed
R26Medium-confidence multi3 legs · $2.65 · Lost31.00u0.00u-1.00u-100.0%
R26High-confidence multi4 legs · $3.80 · Won41.00u3.80u+2.80u+279.6%
R26Against-market H2H tips0/0 correct00.00u0.00u+0.00uNot formed
R27All official H2H tips5/8 correct88.00u6.12u-1.88u-23.5%
R27Low-confidence multi0 legs · Not formed00.00u0.00u+0.00uNot formed
R27Medium-confidence multi4 legs · $4.46 · Lost41.00u0.00u-1.00u-100.0%
R27High-confidence multi4 legs · $2.05 · Won41.00u2.05u+1.05u+105.4%
R27Against-market H2H tips0/0 correct00.00u0.00u+0.00uNot formed
ROUND 24 LOW-CONFIDENCE CHECK$2.22 × $2.41 × $1.91 = $10.218882 → $10.22

The displayed price is correct. It is unusually large because two of the three tips were market outsiders and the third was almost even money. Rounds 21 and 23 add losing low-confidence multis to the combined record.

03 / COMPLETE LEDGER

Every selection.
Nothing hidden.

Prices are retained publication snapshots, not reconstructed closing prices. The evidence label and source are shown separately for each round.

ROUND 21 · Historical market snapshotRound 21 benchmark publication22 July 2026, 6:25 pm AEST

Prices and timestamp are printed in the immutable benchmark publication; the archived source does not name the underlying bookmaker.

ROUND 22 · Official edition market snapshotStats Insider NRL round market29 July 2026, 7:40 pm AEST

The Round 22 source ledger identifies Stats Insider, not Sportsbet, as the market source.

ROUND 23 · Official Sportsbet captureSportsbet public H2H market5 August 2026, 8:29 pm AEST

The source ledger records the Sportsbet H2H capture two minutes before the 8:31 pm publication lock.

ROUND 24 · Official Sportsbet captureSportsbet public H2H market12 August 2026, 7:04 pm AEST

Complete pre-kickoff H2H snapshot retained in the official Round 24 source package.

ROUND 25 · Official Sportsbet captureSportsbet public H2H market19 August 2026, 5:08 pm AEST

Complete pre-kickoff H2H snapshot retained in the official Round 25 source package.

ROUND 26 · Official Sportsbet captureSportsbet public H2H market26 August 2026, 4:50 pm AEST

Complete pre-kickoff H2H snapshot retained in the official Round 26 source package.

ROUND 27 · Official Sportsbet captureSportsbet public H2H market2 September 2026, 5:49 pm AEST

Complete pre-kickoff H2H snapshot retained in the official Round 27 source package.

Round 21Round 21 benchmark publication · 22 July 2026, 6:25 pm AEST
MatchOfficial tipBandPriceMarketResult
Eels v PanthersPanthersMedium$1.16FavouritePanthersCorrect
Knights v RoostersRoostersLow$1.63FavouriteRoostersCorrect
Rabbitohs v StormStormLow$1.81FavouriteStormIncorrect
Raiders v Wests TigersRaidersLow$1.23FavouriteRaidersCorrect
Bulldogs v WarriorsWarriorsMedium$1.56FavouriteWarriorsIncorrect
Cowboys v BroncosCowboys⚠ Against marketMedium$2.13FavouriteBroncosCorrect
Dragons v TitansTitans⚠ Against marketLow$1.97FavouriteDragonsCorrect
Sea Eagles v SharksSharksMedium$1.63FavouriteSharksCorrect
Round 22Stats Insider NRL round market · 29 July 2026, 7:40 pm AEST
MatchOfficial tipBandPriceMarketResult
Cowboys v RoostersRoostersMedium$1.48FavouriteRoostersCorrect
Dragons v DolphinsDolphinsMedium$1.22FavouriteDolphinsCorrect
Storm v BulldogsBulldogsLow$1.46FavouriteBulldogsCorrect
Titans v WarriorsWarriorsMedium$1.58FavouriteWarriorsCorrect
Panthers v RaidersPanthersMedium$1.35FavouritePanthersCorrect
Broncos v KnightsKnights⚠ Against marketMedium$2.70FavouriteBroncosCorrect
Sharks v RabbitohsSharksMedium$1.27FavouriteSharksCorrect
Wests Tigers v EelsEelsLow$1.39FavouriteEelsCorrect
Round 23Sportsbet public H2H market · 5 August 2026, 8:29 pm AEST
MatchOfficial tipBandPriceMarketResult
Titans v CowboysCowboysLow$1.58FavouriteCowboysCorrect
Warriors v PanthersPanthersLow$1.53FavouritePanthersIncorrect
Roosters v BulldogsRoostersMedium$1.35FavouriteRoostersCorrect
Storm v Sea EaglesStorm⚠ Against marketLow$2.13FavouriteSea EaglesCorrect
Dolphins v BroncosDolphinsHigh$1.42FavouriteDolphinsCorrect
Rabbitohs v EelsRabbitohsMedium$1.37FavouriteRabbitohsCorrect
Raiders v KnightsKnights⚠ Against marketMedium$2.00FavouriteRaidersCorrect
Dragons v SharksSharksHigh$1.19FavouriteSharksIncorrect
Round 24Sportsbet public H2H market · 12 August 2026, 7:04 pm AEST
MatchOfficial tipBandPriceMarketResult
Panthers v RoostersRoosters⚠ Against marketLow$2.22FavouritePanthersCorrect
Sea Eagles v DolphinsDolphinsHigh$1.35FavouriteDolphinsCorrect
Bulldogs v RabbitohsRabbitohs⚠ Against marketLow$2.41FavouriteBulldogsCorrect
Sharks v RaidersSharksMedium$1.28FavouriteSharksIncorrect
Eels v CowboysCowboysMedium$1.54FavouriteCowboysIncorrect
Broncos v WarriorsWarriorsHigh$1.42FavouriteWarriorsCorrect
Knights v TitansKnightsHigh$1.22FavouriteKnightsCorrect
Wests Tigers v DragonsDragonsLow$1.91FavouriteDragonsCorrect
Round 25Sportsbet public H2H market · 19 August 2026, 5:08 pm AEST
MatchOfficial tipBandPriceMarketResult
Storm v PanthersPanthersMedium$1.40FavouritePanthersCorrect
Raiders v BroncosRaidersHigh$1.28FavouriteRaidersIncorrect
Dolphins v EelsDolphinsHigh$1.23FavouriteDolphinsCorrect
Knights v Sea EaglesKnightsMedium$1.47FavouriteKnightsIncorrect
Rabbitohs v WarriorsWarriorsMedium$1.67FavouriteWarriorsCorrect
Dragons v BulldogsBulldogsMedium$1.46FavouriteBulldogsCorrect
Titans v SharksSharksHigh$1.46FavouriteSharksCorrect
Roosters v Wests TigersRoostersHigh$1.06FavouriteRoostersIncorrect
Round 26Sportsbet public H2H market · 26 August 2026, 4:50 pm AEST
MatchOfficial tipBandPriceMarketResult
Broncos v StormStormHigh$1.69FavouriteStormCorrect
Sea Eagles v DragonsSea EaglesMedium$1.40FavouriteSea EaglesCorrect
Panthers v BulldogsPanthersHigh$1.34FavouritePanthersCorrect
Titans v RabbitohsRabbitohsHigh$1.32FavouriteRabbitohsCorrect
Roosters v DolphinsRoostersLow$1.55FavouriteRoostersIncorrect
Cowboys v Wests TigersCowboysHigh$1.27FavouriteCowboysCorrect
Warriors v KnightsWarriorsMedium$1.27FavouriteWarriorsCorrect
Eels v SharksSharksMedium$1.49FavouriteSharksIncorrect
Round 27Sportsbet public H2H market · 2 September 2026, 5:49 pm AEST
MatchOfficial tipBandPriceMarketResult
Bulldogs v BroncosBulldogsMedium$1.34FavouriteBulldogsIncorrect
Titans v DolphinsDolphinsHigh$1.23FavouriteDolphinsCorrect
Rabbitohs v RoostersRabbitohsHigh$1.10FavouriteRabbitohsCorrect
Warriors v Sea EaglesWarriorsMedium$1.31FavouriteWarriorsCorrect
Cowboys v RaidersCowboysMedium$1.54FavouriteCowboysIncorrect
Sharks v StormStormHigh$1.38FavouriteStormCorrect
Dragons v EelsEelsMedium$1.65FavouriteEelsIncorrect
Panthers v Wests TigersPanthersHigh$1.10FavouritePanthersCorrect
04 / METHOD

How the lab works.

Method version 1.1 applies prospectively. Rule changes create a new version rather than rewriting history.

01

Capture

Both H2H prices, the source and timestamp are retained at publication lock. Missing or equal prices do not create an against-market flag.

02

Classify

Low, medium and high use the locked publication class. Legacy “standard” classes map to medium. A tip is against market only when its captured price is longer than its opponent's.

03

Settle

Winners return their captured decimal price; losers return zero. ROI is net units divided by all units staked, including losses.

04

Publish

The lab updates only after every game in the round is complete and audited. Corrections, source differences and missing data stay visible.

ROUNDS INCLUDED21–27 · 2026
MARKET EVIDENCEShown round by round
STAKINGFlat one unit only